Mon, Oct 10, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 011 | 014 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 141 |
| DAL | 07 | 010 | 17 | 01 | 2 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:55PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P3 19:32DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Sheldon Souray, Steve Ott · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHX Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson scored
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. DAL Michael Ryder stopped
- 5. PHX Shane Doan scored
- 6. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
Penalties (16)
- P1 7:27DALSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:27PHXMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:31DALTom Wandell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:30PHXTaylor Pyatt: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:53PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:47PHXRostislav Klesla: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:47DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:47DALBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:58PHXKeith Yandle: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:53DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46DALTomas Vincour: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:25PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P3 13:31PHXMikkel Boedker: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:23PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:54DALSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:25DALBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Langkow – Doan9:15
xG 0.41–0.11 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Torres – Nokelainen – Boedker5:58
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Vrbata – Hanzal7:50
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Gordon – O'Sullivan – Korpikoski7:31
xG 0.07–0.10 (44%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko9:45
xG 0.70–0.07 (91%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle10:52
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson11:19
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Eriksson – Benn10:11
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Burish6:32
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Dowell – Wandell – Vincour4:52
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder8:31
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Souray – Daley12:15
xG 0.52–0.60 (47%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Fistric – Larsen7:42
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski12:20
xG 0.09–0.54 (15%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).