Tue, Oct 11, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 02 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 327 |
| OTT | 016 | 113 | 213 | 02 | 3 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Clayton Stoner · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 19:11MINDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 8:17OTTNick FolignoAssists: Peter Regin, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–1
- P3 1:56MINNick JohnsonUnassisted · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 6:13OTTChris NeilSHAssists: Peter Regin, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 8:22OTTColin GreeningPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Milan Michalek scored
- 2. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 4. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 5. OTT Daniel Alfredsson scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:18MINGuillaume Latendresse: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:39MINMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:39OTTZenon Konopka: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:39OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:39OTTZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:40OTTJason Spezza: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:08MINBrett Bulmer: Charging2 min
- P2 14:13MINDarroll Powe: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:13OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:13MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:50MINMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Da Costa won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kassian – Powe3:29
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Gillies8:38
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi14:47
xG 0.34–0.73 (32%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Cullen – Latendresse – Bulmer9:14
xG 0.04–1.19 (3%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zanon – Stoner2:20
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon14:58
xG 0.27–0.57 (33%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky15:38
xG 0.58–1.32 (30%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Da Costa8:17
xG 1.37–0.19 (88%)attempts 23–4goals 0–1
- Neil – Regin – Foligno10:32
xG 0.99–0.04 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Spezza – Greening – Zibanejad7:06
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Konopka – Condra – Smith4:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson18:28
xG 1.19–0.14 (89%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Phillips – Rundblad14:52
xG 1.42–0.50 (74%)attempts 29–12goals 1–2
- Gonchar – Cowen13:37
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).