Wed, Oct 12, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 214 | 117 | 440 |
| PHI | 314 | 16 | 17 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 12:12PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 16:35VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 17:48PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P2 6:41VANHenrik SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 8:32PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.23 xG2–4
- P2 15:31VANChris HigginsAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 3:39VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Mikael Samuelsson · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 4:40PHIAndrej MeszarosGWGAssists: Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.05 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:39VANSami Salo: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:50VANMikael Samuelsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:57VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:53VANAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:33PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:21VANAaron Volpatti: Holding2 min
- P3 2:25PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 5:10PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:17PHIJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:26PHIJakub Voracek: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:30PHIChris Pronger: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows9:47
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti4:09
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Hodgson3:07
xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sturm – Samuelsson – Hodgson3:21
xG 0.05–0.48 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa13:40
xG 0.69–0.53 (57%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Salo – Edler8:40
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Ballard2:04
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Giroux – van Riemsdyk8:25
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Read – Couturier8:13
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Talbot – Nodl – Rinaldo5:05
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Brière – Voracek – Simmonds8:59
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle6:04
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn6:03
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Carle – Meszaros2:01
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).