Thu, Oct 13, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 016 | 08 | 135 |
| NYI | 415 | 114 | 05 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36NYIJohn TavaresUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:10TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 9:28NYIMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: John Tavares, Mark Eaton · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P1 15:15NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P1 18:39NYIPA ParenteauAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
- P2 6:47NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 7:24NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:49TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:51TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
- P3 5:14NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:34TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:38NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:38TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:24NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:07TBLMattias Ritola: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stamkos – Connolly8:03
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Hall – Shannon – Ritola3:40
xG 0.11–0.42 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Malone – Purcell4:47
xG 0.44–0.81 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Moore – Thompson – Downie4:16
xG 0.09–0.72 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Gervais11:49
xG 1.06–0.52 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Kubina – Hedman3:12
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Kubina13:21
xG 0.87–0.78 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:29
xG 1.61–0.61 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 4–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin8:40
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Rolston – Comeau – Bailey9:13
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:41
xG 0.64–1.35 (32%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit14:15
xG 1.33–0.37 (78%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Mottau – Eaton12:39
xG 1.09–1.23 (47%)attempts 10–19goals 3–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:07
xG 0.32–1.49 (18%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).