Thu, Oct 13, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 313 | 17 | 01 | 421 |
| MTL | 110 | 014 | 012 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 7:15CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 11:38CGYNiklas HagmanPPGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 14:54CGYDavid MossAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 13:23CGYRene BourqueAssists: Matt Stajan, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:09CGYDavid Moss: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:49MTLMathieu Darche: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:53MTLBrian Gionta: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:15MTLBrian Gionta: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:00CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:39CGYOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:22MTLHal Gill: Holding2 min
- P3 9:56CGYNiklas Hagman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Stajan – Bourque10:34
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Moss8:20
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Horak6:43
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Stempniak – Glencross10:15
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler16:08
xG 1.30–0.51 (72%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Sarich – Smith10:44
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Hannan – Giordano15:39
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKostitsyn – Desharnais – Pacioretty3:31
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen3:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Desharnais – Eller2:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Darche – Palushaj – Engqvist4:31
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz5:47
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban2:41
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban6:35
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).