Thu, Oct 13, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 316 | 112 | 13 | 531 |
| NSH | 07 | 18 | 110 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00PHXDavid SchlemkoAssists: Petteri Nokelainen, Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:28PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Daymond Langkow, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 18:45PHXLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, Taylor Pyatt · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 11:26PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Martin Hanzal, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–0
- P2 14:01NSHRyan SuterSHAssists: David Legwand · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 9:08NSHColin WilsonAssists: David Legwand, Sergei Kostitsyn · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:50PHXShane DoanENAssists: Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:39NSHNiclas Bergfors: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:07PHXPaul Bissonnette: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:00NSHJordin Tootoo: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:06PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
- P3 14:37PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Boedker11:08
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski12:30
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Torres – Bissonnette – Nokelainen5:56
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan11:56
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko15:12
xG 0.81–0.57 (59%)attempts 23–8goals 3–1
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson16:02
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBergfors – Kostitsyn – Spaling4:47
xG 0.46–0.07 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Wilson3:20
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Smithson – Geoffrion3:26
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Halischuk – Spaling3:52
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber20:10
xG 0.76–0.68 (53%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Laakso – Ekholm10:37
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum16:45
xG 0.35–0.75 (32%)attempts 8–21goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).