Thu, Oct 13, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 07 | 01 | 02 | 1 | 122 |
| MIN | 09 | 111 | 014 | 01 | 2 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40EDMRyan SmythAssists: Eric Belanger, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 8:18MINMatt CullenAssists: Guillaume Latendresse · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 2. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 3. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
- 4. EDM Anton Lander stopped
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 6. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
- 7. MIN Devin Setoguchi scored
- 8. EDM Shawn Horcoff stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:46EDMAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:49EDMTheo Peckham: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:49MINBrad Staubitz: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:12EDMTheo Peckham: Interference2 min
- P2 15:04MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:29EDMRyan Smyth: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:50EDMAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:50MINGuillaume Latendresse: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:34MINGreg Zanon: Interference2 min
- OT 2:43EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Jones – Paajarvi10:39
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Eberle11:00
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins4:40
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lander – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins3:14
xG 0.01–0.03 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Peckham13:34
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Barker – Petry12:54
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Sutton – Gilbert14:33
xG 0.22–0.46 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Setoguchi13:52
xG 0.52–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Powe2:12
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Gillies9:43
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Powe – Bulmer3:01
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Stoner13:22
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon10:47
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Zidlicky17:15
xG 0.53–0.95 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).