Thu, Oct 13, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 113 | 113 | 238 |
| DAL | 112 | 26 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50DALLoui ErikssonSHAssists: Steve Ott · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 7:06DALAdam BurishAssists: Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 14:21DALBrenden MorrowPPGWGAssists: Stephane Robidas, Mike Ribeiro · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 14:41STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Alexander Steen, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 3:58STLChris StewartAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Patrik Berglund · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 18:13DALNicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P2 2:30DALAdam Burish: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:36DALSheldon Souray: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:36STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:36DALSheldon Souray: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:36STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:42STLJason Arnott: Holding2 min
- P2 8:25STLT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P2 13:10STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00DALAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54DALSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:05STLRoman Polak: Delaying game2 min
- P3 16:44STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P3 18:56DALLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:51STLAndy McDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 19:51STLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Steen – D'Agostini9:05
xG 0.94–0.32 (74%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – McDonald – Backes9:08
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Stewart – Berglund10:18
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves4:09
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Pietrangelo13:54
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Polak12:29
xG 0.50–0.11 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:42
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Petersen – Dowell3:40
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Eriksson – Benn12:32
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Burish9:36
xG 0.37–0.86 (30%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder12:22
xG 0.20–0.75 (21%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Goligoski13:39
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas11:52
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann13:44
xG 0.12–1.30 (8%)attempts 6–28goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).