Sat, Oct 15, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 29 | 08 | 231 |
| NYI | 110 | 114 | 210 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 6:23NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:47NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mark Streit, Brian Rolston · Backhand, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 18:26NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 3:30NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mark Streit, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:52NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: PA Parenteau, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:09NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:30NYRTim Erixon: Interference2 min
- P1 12:27NYIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P1 18:04NYIMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:17NYRMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:30NYRRyan Callahan: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:21NYITravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:27NYRRyan Callahan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:44NYRBrian Boyle: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 1:10NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:23NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21NYRMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Stepan9:19
xG 0.89–0.14 (87%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov9:40
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust3:51
xG 0.06–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Rupp – Christensen – Zuccarello2:31
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Erixon10:04
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Woywitka – Eminger9:38
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh11:51
xG 0.03–0.23 (10%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin3:27
xG 0.05–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares7:59
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Gillies2:24
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner7:13
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic13:08
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit11:48
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Mottau – Eaton9:28
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).