Sat, Oct 15, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Los Angeles Kings 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 19 | 07 | 17 | 13 | 326 |
| PHI | 114 | 012 | 18 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:29LAKJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Willie Mitchell · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 12:35LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Simon Gagne, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 13:29PHIMatt CarlePPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 1:39LAKJack JohnsonPPGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (22)
- P1 0:24LAKDustin Penner: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:24LAKDustin Penner: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 0:24LAKDustin Penner: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:24PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:40LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:00PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:14PHIAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:45PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:25LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:12LAKSimon Gagne: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:30LAKKevin Westgarth: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:30PHIZac Rinaldo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:30LAKKevin Westgarth: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:30PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:28LAKMatt Greene: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:04LAKRob Scuderi: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:36PHIKimmo Timonen: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:27LAKMatt Greene: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:52PHIMatt Read: Interference2 min
- P3 13:02LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:52PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:40PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Stoll – Richardson4:53
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Penner2:34
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Richardson3:20
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gagne – Williams – Kopitar9:31
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Greene5:33
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Johnson2:10
xG 0.04–0.05 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Greene4:26
xG 0.17–0.29 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Read – Couturier6:49
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Voracek – Simmonds8:13
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – Nodl – Simmonds2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Giroux – van Riemsdyk8:06
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn8:18
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lilja – Meszaros9:34
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle7:46
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).