Sat, Oct 15, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Ottawa Senators 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 012 | 014 | 134 |
| WSH | 214 | 04 | 08 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Mike Knuble · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:01WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Mike Knuble, Dennis Wideman · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:34OTTPeter ReginAssists: Nick Foligno, David Rundblad · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:24WSHKarl Alzner: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:58OTTChris Neil: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:20OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:46OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Regin won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Michalek10:41
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Regin – Foligno11:23
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Da Costa3:30
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Greening – Da Costa – Zibanejad5:34
xG 0.07–0.07 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Rundblad6:01
xG 0.41–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Phillips – Cowen4:47
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson2:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom13:07
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Laich11:34
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Halpern – Hendricks – King5:32
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Knuble – Semin – Johansson9:45
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Schultz15:11
xG 0.82–0.15 (85%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson15:38
xG 0.35–0.54 (39%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Green14:40
xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).