Sat, Oct 15, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 1, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 19 | 05 | 119 |
| PHX | 211 | 110 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34PHXDaymond LangkowAssists: Ray Whitney, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:12PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 14:57PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Boyd Gordon, Taylor Pyatt · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 19:41WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Toby Enstrom, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 6:43PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:58PHXPaul Bissonnette: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:16PHXTaylor Pyatt: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:10PHXMikkel Boedker: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:43WPGRon Hainsey: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:14WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:19WPGMark Stuart: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:56WPGEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 15:23PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Scheifele5:46
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Slater – Glass2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Stapleton – Scheifele2:02
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov3:07
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Bogosian10:38
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Enstrom10:06
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien3:24
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski7:59
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan7:43
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Torres – Bissonnette – Nokelainen5:39
xG 0.32–0.39 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker10:16
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko11:50
xG 1.29–0.25 (84%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle11:58
xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson13:23
xG 0.16–0.50 (25%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).