Sat, Oct 15, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 011 | 214 | 03 | 2 | 341 |
| NSH | 212 | 06 | 011 | 02 | 0 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:53NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 1:00NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:57NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 2. NSH Cal O'Reilly stopped
- 3. NJD Zach Parise scored
- 4. NSH Matt Halischuk stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:10NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:51NJDDavid Clarkson: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 8:51NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:26NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:32NSHBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32NSHJordin Tootoo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:32NJDEric Boulton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:50NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:18NSHBlake Geoffrion: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:18NJDBrad Mills: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53NJDPetr Sykora: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:23NSHPatric Hornqvist: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Palmieri – Josefson11:16
xG 0.64–0.02 (97%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Sykora – Clarkson – Tedenby3:51
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Boulton – Kovalchuk – Mills3:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Parise5:34
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne12:18
xG 0.61–0.17 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov13:24
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson16:43
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Kostitsyn – Wilson11:34
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Hornqvist – Geoffrion3:25
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Halischuk – Smith6:08
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling9:39
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber18:56
xG 0.99–0.54 (65%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum14:55
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
- Laakso – Hillen9:20
xG 0.06–0.70 (8%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).