Sat, Oct 15, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 113 | 113 | 15 | 341 |
| MIN | 15 | 14 | 04 | 01 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:48MINGreg ZanonAssists: Guillaume Latendresse · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:16MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Colton Gillies, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 19:12DETIan WhiteAssists: Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 3:46DETJiri HudlerAssists: Jakub Kindl, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 4:11DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Ian White · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:12MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:06MINNick Schultz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:04DETPatrick Eaves: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:34MINMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg13:11
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 24–6goals 0–1
- Filppula – Hudler – Franzen13:01
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Bertuzzi – Abdelkader – Helm13:16
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Eaves – Emmerton6:35
xG 0.06–0.02 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl9:36
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – White13:41
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Kronwall – White2:21
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Latendresse12:16
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Powe – Bulmer5:15
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi14:10
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Gillies8:18
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 2–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Zanon – Stoner16:52
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 11–23goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon15:59
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Schultz – Zidlicky17:59
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 6–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).