Mon, Oct 17, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 29 | 04 | 13 | 324 |
| TOR | 08 | 19 | 111 | 01 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:19TORPhil KesselAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 3:31COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:14COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 15:17TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Clarke MacArthur · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 1:11COLDavid JonesGWGAssists: Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:33TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:30COLMilan Hejduk: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:07COLMilan Hejduk: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:34TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:19COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:43COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:14
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Hejduk – Lindstrom – Duchene9:57
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Jones – Stastny11:05
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- McClement – McLeod – Galiardi6:33
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson13:46
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Wilson13:10
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wilson2:00
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLombardi – Armstrong – Frattin9:37
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Steckel – Dupuis – Brown7:00
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak10:06
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:14
xG 0.53–0.73 (42%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Phaneuf3:22
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Liles – Franson2:49
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson16:58
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).