Mon, Oct 17, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 114 | 08 | 129 |
| WPG | 211 | 011 | 012 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:08WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Nik Antropov · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:27WPGTanner GlassGWGAssists: Alexander Burmistrov · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 18:22PITZbynek MichalekAssists: Kris Letang, Matt Cooke · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:36WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
- P1 14:01WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:01PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:54WPGRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:20PITRichard Park: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:53PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:44PITSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:08PITKris Letang: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:02WPGTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:02PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:02WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:02WPGJim Slater: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:02PITBen Lovejoy: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPark – Sullivan – Neal9:46
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal7:23
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Adams – MacIntyre – Vitale3:29
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Asham – Cooke – Letestu8:38
xG 0.11–0.76 (12%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Lovejoy9:29
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Lovejoy2:55
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Letang10:00
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Burmistrov11:08
xG 0.98–0.17 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:08
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass8:17
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Stapleton – MacLean – Scheifele3:45
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Oduya6:57
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien10:23
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Byfuglien3:46
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).