Mon, Oct 17, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 15 | 03 | 112 |
| EDM | 012 | 06 | 37 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:58NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 5:29EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 7:31EDMRyan SmythGWGAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:20EDMRyan JonesENAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Smyth · Snap, 0.70 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:30NSHShea Weber: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:55EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:59NSHNick Spaling: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:26EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:34NSHJonathon Blum: Holding2 min
- P2 5:52EDMLinus Omark: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:08EDMLinus Omark: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:13NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:07NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47EDMAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Wilson9:28
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Halischuk – Smith2:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Geoffrion – Halischuk – Smith3:31
xG 0.01–0.05 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling9:14
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Laakso – Hillen8:49
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber15:53
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum13:20
xG 0.08–0.44 (16%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:14
xG 0.37–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Belanger – Omark – Paajarvi9:51
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones11:49
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Eager – Petrell – Lander2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid14:07
xG 0.35–0.13 (74%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Sutton – Potter8:11
xG 0.23–0.01 (94%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Barker – Petry12:41
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).