Mon, Oct 17, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 212 | 07 | 13 | 322 |
| SJS | 010 | 117 | 116 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Saku Koivu, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 14:33ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu, Brandon McMillan · Slap, 0.46 xG2–0
- P2 6:39SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Douglas Murray · Deflected, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 4:13ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 11:01SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:30ANAMaxime Macenauer: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:13SJSTommy Wingels: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:19SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:17SJSAndrew Desjardins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 13:42SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:42ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:42SJSAndrew Desjardins: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:47ANACorey Perry: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:57ANADevante Smith-Pelly: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:16ANAToni Lydman: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:18ANALuca Sbisa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:05ANAMaxime Macenauer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – McMillan10:53
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Parros – Beleskey – Macenauer2:04
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gordon – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly9:47
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:13
xG 0.49–0.90 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler13:01
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa8:41
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky11:56
xG 0.25–0.50 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Murray – Wingels2:29
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Wingels7:57
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn5:02
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture7:41
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic11:53
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Murray – Vlasic3:30
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Burns2:07
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).