Tue, Oct 18, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 28 | 28 | 425 |
| MIN | 06 | 110 | 110 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:46PITChris KunitzAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 7:14PITJordan StaalPPAssists: Matt Cooke, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 8:07MINCal ClutterbuckSHAssists: Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:38PITJames NealGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 12:21PITPascal DupuisSHAssists: Matt Cooke · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 13:12MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Matt Cullen, Brett Bulmer · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:02PITMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:07PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
- P2 1:50PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:15MINBrad Staubitz: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:26PITMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 10:45PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Park
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Neal – Vitale2:21
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Asham – Cooke – Vitale3:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Park – Sullivan – Neal7:55
xG 0.04–0.39 (10%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal9:45
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Michalek2:46
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Lovejoy2:55
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Lovejoy4:00
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Latendresse – Setoguchi5:58
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Heatley – Koivu – Bouchard8:00
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Bulmer2:54
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Gillies6:59
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon12:47
xG 0.85–0.21 (80%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Schultz – Zidlicky12:00
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Zanon – Stoner14:16
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).