Tue, Oct 18, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 0, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 013 | 09 | 027 |
| LAK | 15 | 212 | 27 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:20LAKSimon GagneGWGAssists: Jarret Stoll, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 11:36LAKJarret StollAssists: Dustin Brown, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 15:05LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Mike Richards, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–3
- P3 0:23LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Simon Gagne, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 6:29LAKSimon GagneAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:28STLBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:45LAKEthan Moreau: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:26STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P2 8:21LAKJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:46LAKMatt Greene: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:22STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53STLAlex Pietrangelo: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:27LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Steen – Backes7:10
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Steen – Backes – Stewart3:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Arnott – Sobotka – D'Agostini8:18
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Arnott – Oshie – Sobotka2:24
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Huskins – Pietrangelo9:47
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Jackman – Polak3:19
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk6:55
xG 0.01–0.10 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Stoll – Richardson11:24
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Gagne – Williams – Kopitar9:13
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Hunter – Lewis – Clifford4:38
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Penner11:14
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Johnson14:09
xG 1.20–0.61 (66%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Voynov16:16
xG 0.54–0.62 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez13:20
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).