Thu, Oct 20, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 014 | 17 | 228 |
| BOS | 318 | 011 | 314 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29TORDavid SteckelAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:32BOSNathan HortonPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P1 16:05BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Andrew Ference, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 17:49BOSChris KellyGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Andrew Ference · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 2:08BOSMilan LucicAssists: Tyler Seguin, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 10:08BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Nathan Horton, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 11:43BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Milan Lucic, Steven Kampfer · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 12:32TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jake Gardiner, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:54BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:23TORMatt Frattin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:41BOSBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:24TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:57TORDavid Steckel: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:26BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:33TORMikhail Grabovski: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:50BOSJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:45TORNazem Kadri: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 15:48BOSJoe Corvo: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:50TORMike Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Lupul – Kessel6:03
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Grabovski – Frattin – Kadri4:27
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin6:22
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Orr – Steckel – Rosehill2:27
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gardiner4:00
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:10
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner11:14
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Lucic – Seguin7:34
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 3–1
- Horton – Bergeron – Marchand8:09
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Pouliot8:58
xG 0.17–0.29 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille9:51
xG 0.19–0.31 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Kampfer9:30
xG 0.81–0.09 (90%)attempts 20–8goals 3–0
- Chara – Boychuk14:03
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Ference – Boychuk2:16
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).