Thu, Oct 20, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 010 | 37 | 528 |
| PHI | 111 | 014 | 117 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:25PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 18:40WSHMathieu PerreaultUnassisted · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 19:48WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer · Snap, 0.48 xG2–1
- P3 2:23WSHRoman HamrlikGWGAssists: Matt Hendricks, Mathieu Perreault · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 3:54WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 4:48WSHJoel WardAssists: Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 19:45PHISean CouturierAssists: Andreas Nodl, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:49PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:49WSHAlexander Semin: Diving2 min
- P1 2:33PHIAndreas Lilja: Holding2 min
- P1 5:45WSHRoman Hamrlik: Holding2 min
- P1 12:43PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:22WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P2 5:34PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:58PHIChris Pronger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:42WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:08PHIScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Hendricks – Perreault8:52
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Knuble – Semin – Johansson11:09
xG 0.75–0.51 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom8:38
xG 0.77–0.98 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich7:16
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson12:10
xG 1.48–1.07 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Hamrlik – Green14:23
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 24–14goals 2–0
- Wideman – Schultz13:20
xG 0.07–0.97 (7%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Read13:39
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Talbot – Nodl – Couturier3:43
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Jagr – Giroux – van Riemsdyk8:31
xG 0.86–0.81 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Voracek – Schenn6:57
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle5:45
xG 0.74–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle11:20
xG 0.71–0.72 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn6:46
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).