Thu, Oct 20, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 013 | 17 | 128 |
| PIT | 116 | 18 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55PITJames NealAssists: Steve Sullivan, Richard Park · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 2:38PITJoe VitaleGWGAssists: Deryk Engelland · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 5:20PITArron AshamAssists: Deryk Engelland, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–3
- P3 18:24MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Brian Gionta, Yannick Weber · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:23MTLRaphael Diaz: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:22MTLCarey Price: Delaying game2 min
- P2 3:54PITPaul Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:39PITBen Lovejoy: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:53PITZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:19MTLBrian Gionta: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:29MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:35PITZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:55MTLDavid Desharnais: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Cole – Plekanec – Pacioretty3:12
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Darche – Pacioretty – Engqvist2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Cammalleri – Eller4:41
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Moen – Plekanec2:38
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban11:57
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Emelin – Weber10:22
xG 0.22–0.71 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Gill – Diaz11:16
xG 0.17–1.02 (14%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPark – Sullivan – Neal8:00
xG 0.83–0.13 (86%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Asham – Cooke – Vitale5:23
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal9:33
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Adams – Letestu – Jeffrey4:28
xG 0.09–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Niskanen9:25
xG 1.37–0.16 (90%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Orpik – Lovejoy8:32
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Orpik – Michalek3:23
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).