Thu, Oct 20, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 09 | 014 | 136 |
| OTT | 012 | 212 | 26 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:39WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 4:48OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Colin Greening, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–1
- P2 13:19OTTJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Colin Greening, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 9:15OTTDaniel AlfredssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 19:20OTTMilan MichalekENAssists: Zack Smith, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:29WPGAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 7:01OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 2:09WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 4:13WPGNik Antropov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:26OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:16WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 8:16OTTChris Neil: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:54OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 14:02OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Burmistrov7:37
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little8:01
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane2:37
xG 0.03–0.05 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Glass – MacLean4:05
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:10
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Stuart – Bogosian13:34
xG 0.68–0.39 (64%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Oduya – Meech7:00
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Condra – Zibanejad3:12
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Smith4:55
xG 0.14–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Zibanejad2:07
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening8:28
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson12:49
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Phillips – Rundblad11:03
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Cowen11:09
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).