Thu, Oct 20, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 06 | 07 | 16 | 329 |
| CGY | 212 | 08 | 012 | 03 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 5:51CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 13:42NYRBrandon PrustSHAssists: Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 15:51CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 4:58NYRRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Brandon Dubinsky · Snap, 0.28 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:07CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:07NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:16CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P1 10:42CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:56NYRMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:59CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:59NYRKris Newbury: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 14:59NYRKris Newbury: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:59NYRKris Newbury: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 19:07NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:07CGYAlex Tanguay: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:52NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min
- P2 10:30NYRRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:16NYRJeff Woywitka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Stepan13:31
xG 0.78–0.51 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust10:56
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov9:32
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Eminger12:36
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh17:00
xG 0.75–1.15 (39%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Erixon13:54
xG 0.06–0.73 (8%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Morrison – Hagman – Bourque10:37
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Stempniak – Glencross13:29
xG 0.63–0.70 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Moss9:32
xG 0.47–0.55 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan4:06
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler15:57
xG 1.17–0.56 (68%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Sarich – Smith12:51
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hannan – Giordano14:15
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).