Thu, Oct 20, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 2, Edmonton Oilers 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 010 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 231 |
| EDM | 19 | 09 | 09 | 04 | 0 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:06EDMRyan JonesAssists: Ryan Smyth · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 19:58MINDany HeatleyAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 3. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 4. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
- 5. EDM Eric Belanger stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:58EDMRyan Smyth: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:03MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:16MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:16EDMBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:16EDMBen Eager: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:34MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:59EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min
- P2 13:58EDMCam Barker: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Heatley – Setoguchi2:50
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi9:46
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Powe – Bulmer2:08
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Powe – Gillies3:57
xG 0.04–0.05 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon14:29
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Stoner12:51
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Stoner2:10
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins7:47
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Belanger – Omark – Paajarvi10:04
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander5:37
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones12:16
xG 0.35–0.77 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Barker13:33
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Whitney – Potter12:11
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid13:27
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).