Thu, Oct 20, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 09 | 07 | 126 |
| VAN | 416 | 015 | 19 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:01NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Colin Wilson, Jonathon Blum · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 5:56VANHenrik SedinPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 12:02VANDale WeiseAssists: Alexander Edler, Maxim Lapierre · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 13:28VANChris HigginsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 6:06VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Sami Salo · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:46NSHPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:24NSHColin Wilson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 9:30VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:24VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00NSHColin Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00VANMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:34VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:20NSHTeemu Laakso: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:48NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:01NSHNick Spaling: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:58VANAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:58NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:53NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:12NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:12NSHShea Weber: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:12NSHShea Weber: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:34VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Geoffrion
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Kostitsyn – Hornqvist – Spaling4:52
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Legwand – Halischuk – Wilson4:18
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Laakso – Ekholm9:58
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Suter – Weber12:56
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum10:57
xG 0.54–1.36 (29%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows7:02
xG 1.01–0.32 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti7:33
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hodgson5:56
xG 0.31–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Sturm – Malhotra – Hansen8:39
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Alberts8:02
xG 1.55–0.38 (80%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Edler9:20
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Alberts – Edler2:04
xG 0.02–0.14 (14%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).