Fri, Oct 21, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
San Jose Sharks 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 220 | 113 | 01 | 2 | 441 |
| NJD | 16 | 15 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:53NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, David Clarkson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:36NJDZach PariseUnassisted · Backhand, 0.41 xG0–2
- P2 15:18SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 16:21SJSRyane CloweAssists: Martin Havlat, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 13:18NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Andy Greene · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 19:27SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 2. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 3. NJD Zach Parise stopped
- 4. SJS Michal Handzus scored
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 6. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:59NJDNick Palmieri: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 3:27SJSBrad Winchester: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 7:21NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:21SJSDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:49SJSDouglas Murray: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:22SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:29NJDAdam Larsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:36SJSBrent Burns: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 6:34NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min
- P2 9:55NJDNick Palmieri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:49SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:03NJDRod Pelley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski11:49
xG 0.73–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture10:33
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–2goals 1–1
- Handzus – McGinn – Ferriero4:40
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic10:51
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray9:59
xG 0.48–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – Burns2:22
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Kovalchuk – Palmieri6:45
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Mills – Tedenby4:52
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 1–1
- Elias – Zubrus – Parise2:47
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Boulton – Kovalchuk – Pelley2:51
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Larsson12:58
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Fayne13:41
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Salvador – Volchenkov10:51
xG 0.05–0.63 (8%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).