Sat, Oct 22, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 111 | 29 | 430 |
| BOS | 014 | 09 | 216 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 8:54SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Martin Havlat, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 2:43BOSMilan LucicAssists: Chris Kelly, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 3:12BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Milan Lucic, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 8:48SJSBenn FerrieroGWGAssists: Jamie McGinn, Jim Vandermeer · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:55SJSPatrick MarleauENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:08SJSAndrew Desjardins: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:12BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P2 2:48SJSRyane Clowe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:23BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:23SJSJim Vandermeer: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Murray – Desjardins4:43
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski12:00
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Handzus – McGinn – Ferriero10:57
xG 0.58–0.67 (46%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture12:16
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic15:12
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
- Vandermeer – Braun5:57
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Murray – Braun2:23
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Bergeron – Marchand13:09
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Lucic – Seguin13:40
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Pouliot8:06
xG 0.42–0.28 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:55
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk15:12
xG 0.64–0.35 (64%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Corvo – Seidenberg14:48
xG 0.68–0.50 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Ference – Kampfer9:22
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).