Sat, Oct 22, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 09 | 15 | 124 |
| PIT | 19 | 04 | 316 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07PITJordan StaalPPAssists: Richard Park, Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 1:47NJDPatrik EliasSHAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Anton Volchenkov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 3:07PITChris KunitzPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:17PITJordan StaalAssists: Arron Asham, Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 9:14PITJames NealAssists: Richard Park, Zbynek Michalek · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:31NJDDavid Clarkson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:52NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:37NJDPetr Sykora: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 10:49PITPaul Martin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:00NJDNick Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:47PITSteve MacIntyre: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:27NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Parise13:04
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Janssen – Pelley – Mills4:29
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Tedenby – Henrique8:30
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Palmieri9:47
xG 0.44–0.49 (48%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Larsson2:30
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne13:31
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Salvador – Volchenkov9:25
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Cooke – Vitale9:28
xG 0.30–0.04 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal8:28
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Jeffrey2:02
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Park – Sullivan – Neal7:07
xG 0.35–0.87 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Niskanen13:21
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Orpik – Engelland2:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek14:20
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).