Sat, Oct 22, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 26 | 06 | 112 | 324 |
| WPG | 213 | 36 | 05 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40CARJussi JokinenAssists: Chad LaRose, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 6:43CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Chad LaRose, Jamie McBain · Tip-in, 0.37 xG2–0
- P1 12:32WPGAlexander BurmistrovPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Kyle Wellwood · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 19:58WPGKyle WellwoodPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 4:29WPGJim SlaterAssists: Tanner Glass · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 6:07WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.01 xG2–4
- P2 7:30WPGEvander KaneAssists: Nik Antropov, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 8:58CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.11 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:36CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:49CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:49CARBrett Sutter: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:35WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:38CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:42WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 4:12WPGZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:18WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:08CARAnthony Stewart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:32WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:49WPGNik Antropov: Interference2 min
- P3 15:43WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:13CARJussi Jokinen: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Skinner2:24
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Brent – Stewart – Sutter2:45
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter4:13
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – LaRose – Staal2:06
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain5:30
xG 0.87–0.20 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Allen – Gleason6:13
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Harrison4:47
xG 0.21–0.45 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Ladd – Little2:09
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass2:37
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little2:58
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien6:00
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Oduya – Jones6:15
xG 0.01–0.03 (20%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Bogosian4:08
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).