Sat, Oct 22, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 0, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 04 | 07 | 08 | 019 |
| EDM | 011 | 19 | 17 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:09EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 4:03EDMCorey PotterPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:31NYRMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:43EDMAndy Sutton: Holding2 min
- P2 1:43EDMAndy Sutton: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:43NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:48EDMTaylor Hall: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:51EDMCorey Potter: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:59NYRKris Newbury: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:23NYRMike Rupp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:18EDMAndy Sutton: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:21EDMTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P3 18:57NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Newbury – Boyle2:29
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Anisimov5:02
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Stepan3:35
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Prust3:13
xG 0.10–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:47
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Bell – Eminger10:15
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Erixon13:00
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Horcoff – Jones11:21
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Belanger – Gagner – Paajarvi8:54
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:27
xG 0.43–0.63 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander7:07
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid12:00
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter10:59
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Barker2:46
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).