Sun, Oct 23, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 210 | 313 | 012 | 535 |
| ANA | 29 | 113 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:21ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: Corey Perry, Luca Sbisa · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:02ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Teemu Selanne, Cam Fowler · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 14:44PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 4:47PHXBoyd GordonAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P2 6:27PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 7:56PHXKeith YandleGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P2 13:31ANAKurtis FosterAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Saku Koivu · Snap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 18:52ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:01ANAMaxime Macenauer: Holding2 min
- P1 18:45PHXMartin Hanzal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:55PHXRaffi Torres: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:55ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:27PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:15ANAMaxime Macenauer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:57PHXAndy Miele: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:27ANATeemu Selanne: Holding2 min
- P3 16:28PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Langkow – Doan12:24
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski10:11
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
- Torres – O'Sullivan – Miele3:54
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker14:03
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson10:45
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle12:20
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Klesla – Schlemko13:06
xG 0.60–0.78 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMacenauer – McMillan – Smith-Pelly2:58
xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Macenauer – Smith-Pelly2:40
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – McMillan6:36
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Gordon – Cogliano – Beleskey4:31
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler2:56
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Visnovsky2:48
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Brookbank – Sbisa3:37
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).