Mon, Oct 24, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 012 | 19 | 226 |
| PHI | 19 | 110 | 211 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11TORPhil KesselAssists: Joffrey Lupul, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:22PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 15:46PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 8:34PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 11:34TORDavid SteckelAssists: Matt Frattin, Matthew Lombardi · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 15:15PHIJaromir JagrAssists: Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:28TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:46PHIJody Shelley: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:31TORJoffrey Lupul: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:20PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:20PHIMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:20TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:15TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00TORClarke MacArthur: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:42PHIDaniel Brière: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin10:44
xG 1.10–0.12 (90%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Lupul – Kessel8:47
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Steckel – Frattin2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Rosehill – Brown4:16
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson11:10
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner3:34
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Phaneuf2:13
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Talbot – Couturier4:33
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux10:33
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Read6:09
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn11:25
xG 0.66–0.90 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Meszaros9:58
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Walker – Coburn6:11
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn6:24
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).