Mon, Oct 24, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 015 | 17 | 231 |
| MTL | 114 | 013 | 014 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08MTLErik ColePPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Raphael Diaz · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:59FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 5:02FLAScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Tomas Kopecky · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:31FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:32FLAScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P1 15:35MTLJosh Gorges: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:03MTLP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:31MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:10FLAJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Kennedy – Matthias11:25
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sturm – Santorelli – Skille8:36
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Upshall9:16
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:14
xG 0.16–0.36 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov13:46
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Campbell – Garrison17:41
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson9:53
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Darche – Desharnais3:04
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Blunden5:23
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty6:41
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec10:23
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban15:02
xG 0.82–0.15 (84%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Diaz2:24
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Gill – Diaz13:19
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).