Mon, Oct 24, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 2, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 17 | 17 | 217 |
| WPG | 08 | 17 | 013 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:51NYRRuslan FedotenkoPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Michael Del Zotto · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 14:29WPGNik AntropovAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 8:41NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Dan Girardi · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:55WPGTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:55NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:52WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:34NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:51WPGNik Antropov: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:51WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:39WPGRandy Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:49WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Dubinsky – Callahan8:14
xG 0.23–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Wolski – Dubinsky – Anisimov2:19
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust6:33
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Boyle – Prust4:01
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – McDonagh2:44
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Eminger9:51
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Eminger – Del Zotto2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:50
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Wellwood – McArdle – Stapleton9:06
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Glass – Maxwell5:57
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov13:54
xG 0.12–0.38 (25%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:52
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Jones10:24
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Stuart – Bogosian12:26
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).