Tue, Oct 25, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 213 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 328 |
| CAR | 015 | 07 | 26 | 06 | 0 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:30OTTZenon KonopkaAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Jesse Winchester · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 18:36OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Colin Greening, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P3 15:08CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jay Harrison · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 17:29CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Jamie McBain, Eric Staal · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 2. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 5. CAR Tuomo Ruutu stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:28OTTNick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P1 17:04OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P2 17:47CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:14OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 17:23OTTDavid Rundblad: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Greening14:54
xG 1.06–0.43 (71%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith11:24
xG 0.83–0.47 (63%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Neil – Foligno – Zibanejad11:07
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Konopka – Winchester – Da Costa6:11
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen12:20
xG 0.83–0.23 (78%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Kuba – Karlsson20:43
xG 0.99–0.60 (62%)attempts 24–27goals 0–0
- Phillips – Rundblad13:14
xG 0.69–0.53 (56%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Skinner11:03
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Tlusty2:53
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Dwyer – Sutter2:46
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brent – Sutter – Boychuk5:44
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kaberle – Harrison14:18
xG 0.70–0.66 (51%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Pitkanen – McBain19:06
xG 0.48–0.79 (38%)attempts 21–19goals 0–1
- Allen – Gleason14:49
xG 0.30–1.18 (20%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).