Tue, Oct 25, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 117 | 010 | 29 | 336 |
| NSH | 07 | 05 | 18 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:22SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Martin Havlat · Snap, 0.38 xG1–0
- P3 13:12NSHCraig SmithAssists: Shea Weber, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 14:09SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 18:48SJSJoe PavelskiENAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:28SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P1 15:35NSHNick Spaling: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:42NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58SJSBrad Winchester: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:37SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P3 11:50SJSRyane Clowe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Clowe – Couture12:31
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins5:27
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski11:25
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Handzus – McGinn – Ferriero10:40
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic13:43
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Murray – Vlasic2:58
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Braun12:59
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson6:17
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Smith12:35
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling6:33
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Spaling3:07
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Hillen13:23
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber14:36
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein3:21
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).