Tue, Oct 25, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 115 | 09 | 110 | 02 | 2 | 336 |
| PHX | 111 | 010 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:18PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:22DALSheldon SourayPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Steve Ott · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 8:13PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 18:59DALAdam BurishAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHX Ray Whitney stopped
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 5. PHX Shane Doan stopped
- 6. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
- 7. PHX Andy Miele stopped
- 8. DAL Sheldon Souray stopped
- 9. PHX Patrick O'Sullivan scored
- 10. DAL Michael Ryder scored
- 11. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
- 12. DAL Brenden Morrow stopped
- 13. PHX Adrian Aucoin stopped
- 14. DAL Steve Ott stopped
- 15. PHX Daymond Langkow stopped
- 16. DAL Trevor Daley scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:42PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:28DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:23PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:55PHXAndy Miele: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:12DALSheldon Souray: Interference2 min
- P3 4:47DALAdam Pardy: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 5:10PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Burish2:53
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:52
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Petersen – Burish – Dowell3:57
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder11:17
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Pardy15:47
xG 0.90–0.20 (82%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Daley – Grossmann13:56
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas13:10
xG 0.26–1.36 (16%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski9:59
xG 1.10–0.70 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal7:39
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Langkow – Doan – Torres2:26
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker4:47
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle14:52
xG 1.24–0.88 (59%)attempts 16–21goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson10:26
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Klesla – Schlemko15:40
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).