Wed, Oct 26, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 3, Vancouver Canucks 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 111 | 26 | 331 |
| VAN | 07 | 08 | 017 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:29STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jason Arnott · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 6:17STLAlexander SteenAssists: Matt D'Agostini, David Backes · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 17:09STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:51VANAaron Volpatti: Interference2 min
- P3 3:27STLJason Arnott: Holding2 min
- P3 4:05VANAlexander Edler: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:41STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:24VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestNichol – Porter – Grachev6:55
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – D'Agostini – Berglund9:33
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Backes – Sobotka – Stewart10:50
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Steen14:02
xG 0.48–0.74 (39%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk16:31
xG 0.83–0.68 (55%)attempts 15–25goals 1–0
- Huskins – Pietrangelo16:12
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Polak14:12
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Booth – Hansen3:53
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:41
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Higgins – Hodgson2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hansen – Hodgson – Volpatti6:40
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa16:12
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Salo – Edler14:50
xG 0.34–0.40 (45%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
- Ballard – Sulzer18:03
xG 0.50–0.92 (35%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).