Thu, Oct 27, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 14 | 17 | 15 | 316 |
| MIN | 08 | 111 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:01ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 13:07MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 3:58ANARyan GetzlafPPGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 13:54MINMatt CullenPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:54MINDarroll Powe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59ANAToni Lydman: Interference2 min
- P2 2:55ANATeemu Selanne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:25ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:58MINBrett Bulmer: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:40MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:53ANABobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:57MINDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:08ANAKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:08MINGuillaume Latendresse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:15MINMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan10:51
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey2:00
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Parros – Beleskey – Macenauer4:45
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon8:05
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Sbisa7:53
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky14:10
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:21
xG 0.31–0.31 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi7:26
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Clutterbuck7:35
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Latendresse2:51
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Latendresse – Powe – Gillies3:42
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon9:05
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – Stoner6:00
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Falk10:39
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).