Thu, Oct 27, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 1, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 07 | 019 | 135 |
| EDM | 15 | 18 | 06 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:36WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Jeff Halpern, Jason Chimera · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 18:15EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Corey Potter · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 12:44EDMJordan EberlePPGWGAssists: Corey Potter, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:52EDMTheo Peckham: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:55EDMAnton Lander: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:55WSHMatt Hendricks: Diving2 min
- P1 15:23WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:23EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:37WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 17:43WSHRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:29WSHJeff Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:04WSHTroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23WSHMarcus Johansson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:11WSHMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:14WSHKarl Alzner: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:22EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:59EDMAnton Lander: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:54EDMAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom6:39
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich4:33
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Hendricks – Perreault4:49
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Backstrom2:09
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Collins10:53
xG 1.21–0.21 (85%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson8:49
xG 0.81–0.04 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Carlson2:31
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Horcoff – Jones8:06
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander7:03
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins7:53
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Belanger – Gagner – Paajarvi6:09
xG 0.16–0.81 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – Smid10:28
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Potter – Peckham8:49
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Sutton – Barker13:21
xG 0.15–0.75 (17%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).