Thu, Oct 27, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
New Jersey Devils 3, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 111 | 113 | 334 |
| PHX | 119 | 215 | 28 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18PHXPatrick O'SullivanAssists: Daymond Langkow, David Schlemko · Tip-in, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 14:15NJDZach PariseUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:28NJDMark FayneAssists: Mattias Tedenby · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:24PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 19:11PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 12:16PHXMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 14:26PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
- P3 19:53NJDNick PalmieriAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:47NJDMark Fayne: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:46NJDPetr Sykora: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:08PHXRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:10NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:18NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Parise
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Tedenby – Henrique11:32
xG 0.47–0.18 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus9:52
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Palmieri11:17
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 9–17goals 1–2
- Janssen – Carter – Mills6:31
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Larsson18:27
xG 1.05–0.92 (53%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2
- Fayne – Greene13:27
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov14:36
xG 0.47–0.79 (38%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Pyatt – O'Sullivan4:27
xG 0.55–0.19 (75%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal9:08
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Torres – Gordon – Korpikoski11:42
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Pyatt – O'Sullivan – Miele2:12
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko17:48
xG 0.90–0.73 (55%)attempts 19–18goals 2–1
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson14:39
xG 0.58–0.50 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle15:14
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).