Sat, Oct 29, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
San Jose Sharks 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 110 | 011 | 11 | 330 |
| NYI | 010 | 217 | 010 | 00 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 3:15NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 11:28NYIMichael GrabnerPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 13:19SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 1:07SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:10NYISteve Staios: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:10SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:48SJSTorrey Mitchell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:24SJSJason Demers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:06SJSJoe Pavelski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 2:57NYISteve Staios: Interference2 min
- P3 16:33NYIKyle Okposo: Elbowing2 min
- OT 0:29NYITravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Clowe – Couture12:22
xG 0.81–0.56 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski15:13
xG 0.72–0.88 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Winchester – Desjardins – McGinn6:31
xG 0.08–0.34 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Murray – Mitchell8:10
xG 0.07–0.38 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic16:17
xG 1.17–0.48 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- White – Demers12:45
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray14:44
xG 0.47–0.93 (33%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:47
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:28
xG 1.05–0.87 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Rolston – Comeau – Bailey10:33
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin9:13
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic15:28
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Eaton – Jurcina12:25
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Streit – Hamonic2:13
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).