Sat, Oct 29, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 010 | 03 | 020 |
| NSH | 216 | 07 | 16 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:59NSHMartin EratAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 2:14NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Ryan Suter, David Legwand · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:46NSHBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:46ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:41ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:41NSHKevin Klein: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:41ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 12:41NSHKevin Klein: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:21NSHBlake Geoffrion: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:18ANALubomir Visnovsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:42ANABrandon McMillan: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:23NSHBlake Geoffrion: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:23ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:23ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:05ANASheldon Brookbank: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan12:24
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gordon – Cogliano – McMillan7:14
xG 0.04–0.04 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey12:56
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan2:00
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Fowler3:18
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa9:27
xG 0.28–0.24 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Lydman – Beauchemin2:06
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson12:03
xG 1.53–0.25 (86%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Geoffrion – Halischuk3:52
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Smith3:19
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling9:14
xG 0.17–0.39 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber19:29
xG 1.80–0.46 (80%)attempts 27–17goals 1–0
- Blum – Hillen11:43
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein13:49
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).