Sat, Oct 29, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 112 | 09 | 132 |
| DAL | 19 | 04 | 210 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Steve Ott, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 12:00NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 11:34DALVernon FiddlerGWGAssists: Radek Dvorak, Sheldon Souray · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:57DALSheldon SourayENAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:04NJDPetr Sykora: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:54DALSheldon Souray: Delaying game2 min
- P2 18:12NJDRyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P3 4:32DALKrys Barch: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:04NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference2 min
- P3 13:04DALNicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:58DALMichael Ryder: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Parise won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Tedenby – Henrique9:14
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus11:23
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Janssen – Carter – Mills2:00
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Clarkson12:17
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov14:22
xG 0.64–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene10:18
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne2:15
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Eriksson – Benn12:49
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Barch – Burish – Wandell5:11
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom8:20
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder13:46
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Pardy13:32
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann12:42
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas14:29
xG 0.19–0.34 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).