Sat, Oct 29, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Los Angeles Kings 2, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 115 | 111 | 01 | 239 |
| PHX | 013 | 28 | 09 | 13 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:58LAKMike RichardsAssists: Dustin Brown, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:36PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 15:23PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:30LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Trent Hunter, Matt Greene · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 4:16PHXDaymond LangkowGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:42PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 9:41PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:47PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:47LAKBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:23LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P3 3:49PHXRay Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:12LAKScott Parse: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:46PHXRaffi Torres: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHunter – Stoll – Richardson8:09
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Hunter – Richardson – Kopitar4:33
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Richards – Parse11:32
xG 0.78–0.70 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Moreau – Stoll – Penner3:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty17:14
xG 0.85–0.38 (69%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez11:40
xG 0.75–0.73 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Johnson15:37
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Doan – Boedker11:33
xG 1.06–0.75 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:09
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Torres – Gordon – Korpikoski9:30
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Pyatt – O'Sullivan – Bissonnette2:55
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko14:35
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson13:47
xG 0.91–0.63 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle14:29
xG 0.44–0.75 (37%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).