Sat, Oct 29, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 4, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 312 | 010 | 432 |
| VAN | 317 | 114 | 312 | 743 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31VANMaxim LapierreAssists: Dale Weise, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:55WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Troy Brouwer, Nicklas Backstrom · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 13:17VANChris HigginsPPAssists: Dan Hamhuis, David Booth · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 19:56VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Sami Salo, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 1:25WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 5:07WSHMike KnubleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–3
- P2 8:00VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 17:54WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 6:18VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–5
- P3 6:52VANChris HigginsAssists: Jannik Hansen, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–6
- P3 10:25VANMaxim LapierreSHAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:55VANAlexander Sulzer: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:27WSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:49WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:42VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:51WSHJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:26VANDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:07VANAlexander Edler: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:08WSHTroy Brouwer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:15WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:17VANSami Salo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Hendricks – Perreault2:22
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Semin – Johansson6:07
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Perreault4:24
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Halpern – Ward4:44
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wideman14:47
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Wideman – Schultz3:43
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Schultz – Collins8:45
xG 0.14–0.36 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Booth – Hodgson8:15
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:49
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti9:48
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Higgins – Hansen7:24
xG 0.01–0.48 (3%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Edler12:12
xG 1.07–0.20 (84%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa14:40
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:19
xG 0.17–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).