Sun, Oct 30, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Anaheim Ducks 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 13 | 011 | 06 | 120 |
| CBJ | 110 | 27 | 04 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23CBJRick NashPPAssists: James Wisniewski, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:24ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Toni Lydman · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:57CBJRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Matt Calvert · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 12:52CBJFedor TyutinAssists: James Wisniewski, Samuel Pahlsson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:36ANATeemu Selanne: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:36ANASaku Koivu: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:38ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:38CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:01ANAAndrew Cogliano: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:01CBJKris Russell: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:45ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:45CBJCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49ANATeemu Selanne: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:56CBJGrant Clitsome: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:57CBJJames Wisniewski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:24CBJFedor Tyutin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:24ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:17CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:17ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:32CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beauchemin won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan6:44
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Macenauer4:11
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gordon – Cogliano – Beleskey2:54
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan7:05
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:43
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Fowler2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Vermette – Johansen2:15
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Calvert – Johansen7:01
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Bass10:26
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Prospal – Vermette – Nash3:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Russell6:45
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Wisniewski17:48
xG 0.23–0.24 (48%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Moore16:55
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).