Sun, Oct 30, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 111 | 115 | 06 | 232 |
| COL | 15 | 14 | 17 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55COLChuck KobasewSHAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Kyle Quincey · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:22LAKScott ParsePPAssists: Jarret Stoll · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 9:04COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: David Jones, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 18:44LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–2
- P3 1:52COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:36LAKScott Parse: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:18LAKDustin Penner: Interference2 min
- P1 6:11COLJan Hejda: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:07LAKScott Parse: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:59COLShane O'Brien: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:35COLJan Hejda: Holding2 min
- P3 16:19LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:14COLDaniel Winnik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Lewis – Clifford6:36
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Parse9:23
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Penner – Kopitar12:12
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hunter – Stoll – Richardson8:46
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty15:40
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Greene – Martinez12:55
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Johnson16:18
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stastny – Galiardi11:42
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod4:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:46
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Jones – Duchene8:01
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson13:25
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Wilson2:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – O'Brien13:42
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).